No, you’re not going mad. The Madman Theory is a genuine political theory that can be utilized by politicians and world leaders. Its premise is simple: make them think you’re insane. It gives you the upper hand as the opposition (or anybody for that matter) have no clue what you’re going to do next.
Once attributed to Richard Nixon’s foreign policy, today some people believe it is the strategy of choice for Donald Trump. Is it an effective strategy, particularly regarding foreign policy? Or is it reckless and potentially downright dangerous?
Nixon the Madman
In his fight against Communism, Nixon wanted to keep the Soviets guessing what his plan was. The president confided with his Chief of Staff, H.R Haldeman:
“I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, ‘for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about Communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry – and he has his hand on the nuclear button’ and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”
Nixon linked the Madman Theory with installing fear to his opposition. By making them too fearful to further anger Nixon, at risk of being subject to nuclear annihilation, peace would be assured. His image as an impulsive madman was intended to make North Vietnam, China, and the Soviet Union to give in to his wants.
But did it actually work?
Yes, it did.
As suggested by the above quote, the theory was applied to the Vietnam War, of which Nixon is credited to bringing about the end of American involvement in Vietnam – although it was his Secretary of State and diplomat, Henry Kissinger, at the peace talks in Paris in 1973. The theory was essentially used to force North Vietnam into talks for a peace. After North Vietnam announced publicly the details of the first peace treaty in October 1972 (just before the 1972 election), the Nixon administration accused Hanoi of trying to undermine the president and potentially affect the vote. Hanoi was also accused of “stalling,” seemingly refusing to agree to a demilitarized zone separating North and South as an international border, and a nation-wide ceasefire. Nixon launched Operation Linebacker II in response – an 11-day continuous bombing of North Vietnam’s transport network, with focus around Hanoi and Haiphong. The result was Hanoi agreeing to peace negotiations to stop the bombing – which was what Nixon wanted.
Nixon was also able to achieve a détente with the Soviet Union during his presidency – that is tensions were eased between the two superpowers. Although Nixon wanted to open a line of communication between the United States and the Soviet Union, he still applied the Madman Theory as a threat should negotiations not go his way. He issued an order to launch Operation Giant Lance on October 10, 1969, that simulated a nuclear attack on the USSR should the Cold War get hot. Eighteen B-52s were flown into the Arctic Circle toward Soviet airspace for three days. It was not supposed to be a secret mission to the Soviets. It was supposed to be seen to send a message that Nixon was willing to go to nuclear war should he ever have to.
Was Nixon an Actual Madman?
Nixon seemed to be a narcissist (aren’t most presidents?) and a pathological liar. For the most part, neither of those two traits would classify someone as “mad.”
However, Nixon is thought to have suffered from paranoia. He believed he was surrounded by enemies (political opponents, the media, his own staff, and intellectuals) and kept a list of over 200 people he deemed to be his enemy. His paranoia almost certainly led to the Watergate Scandal between 1972 and 1974, which ended in his resignation.
Trump and the Madman Theory
Some days, keeping up with Trump’s foreign policy is near impossible, because you never know what he’s going to do next. Although, it may sometimes help to just follow his Twitter page to stay in the loop.
Unlike Nixon, Trump seems to be using this political strategy when dealing with both allied and hostile countries. No one knows who will be dissed in the next Tweet. Could this risk alienation? Well, yes. Tensions between Europe and the U.S are currently pretty fraught. According to Pew Research, favorable views on America dropped in the Trump administration in most countries surveyed. For Europe especially, one of the largest concerns is Trump’s relationship with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, due to accusations that Russia is infiltrating and trying to weaken the European Union.
If you want to know what Trump has said about your country, check out this interactive page by the BBC. It will give a recent Tweet about that country, the number of Tweets, number of phone calls and meetings, and will give a verdict on his relations with that country.
The Madman Theory on North Korea
Trump’s Madman Theory is most attributed to North Korea. After a war of words on Twitter with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and threats of “fire and fury” (which escalated tensions to the extent that Guam citizens were given pamphlets on what to do in a nuclear attack in August 2017), the position where North Korea is willing to negotiate was certainly unexpected. Pyongyang stepped down the threats – which no matter how you look at it, is a victory to a degree.
It seems to be working with North Korea, but is the strategy efficient long term? Trump could be making the Madman Theory less efficient due to his liberal use of Twitter, where threats and harsh language is the norm. Nixon used it sparingly, to show that he would return to his senses when the opponent backed down and gave him what he wanted. The Madman Theory was supposed to be a temporary emotional reaction.
On the other hand, this could be the Madman Theory adapted into the modern day. Nixon could get away with appearing impulsive and hard to predict at temporary intervals. In an age of 24/7 news, the Madman Theory should be carried out for longer periods to ensure that hostile nations don’t think the president has suddenly become lax. The complete randomness of Trump’s Twitter adds to the image of unpredictability. The instant availability of news due to the Internet means that the president can react to more events in a shorter space of time.
Is it dangerous? When pushed too far, then it is likely to be dangerous. A slight miscommunication or a nation taking the threat too seriously risks an attack. The Madman Theory depends on the politician knowing where the limit is. Threatening another nation with nuclear annihilation could potentially lead to an attack and mutually assured destruction (MAD). Meanwhile the rest of us that survive will have to cope with a nuclear winter for the next few decades.
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